Holiday Season 2025 Forecast: What Canadian CPG Leaders Need to Know Now
For Canadian CPG companies, the holiday season represents a critical share of annual revenue. In 2025, that pressure is greater than ever. According to the Retail Council of Canada (RCC, 2025), holiday retail sales are forecasted to reach $63.5 billion, up 4.1% from 2024.
But behind that topline growth lies complexity. Inflation, tariffs, and shifting consumer preferences are reshaping how Canadians shop. For CPG leaders, the challenge isn’t simply stocking up, it’s executing flawlessly at the shelf while preparing for a mixed-channel reality.
The Growth of Ecommerce vs. In-Store Sales
Holiday shopping is no longer just about crowded malls. RCC (2025) projects that 31% of Canadians plan to do the majority of their holiday shopping online. At the same time, in-store grocery and discount retailers are forecasted to grow traffic by 2.8% year-over-year.
For CPG brands, this split is both opportunity and risk:
- Ecommerce growth: Expands reach but requires integration of fulfillment and digital shelf presence.
- In-store growth: Demands flawless merchandising execution to capture seasonal traffic.
The takeaway? CPG leaders must win both digital and physical shelves.
Inflation and the 2025 Holiday Shopper Mindset
Even with rising sales, inflation looms large. Statistics Canada (2025) reports that food prices remain 4.3% higher YoY. That means shoppers are more selective, less forgiving of mispriced or unavailable items, and more likely to switch brands.
Ipsos Canada (2025) found that 58% of consumers plan to cut back on premium purchases this holiday season in favor of essentials or deals. This raises the stakes for execution: consumers won’t forgive empty shelves or expired products during peak shopping periods.
Why Execution Will Make or Break Holiday 2025
NielsenIQ (2025) reports that 70% of Canadian shoppers abandon their first-choice brand if it isn’t available in-store. During the holidays, when foot traffic spikes and expectations are high, that means millions in lost sales for brands that fail at execution.
Key risk factors include:
- Non-compliant planograms: Products not where retailers and shoppers expect them.
- Stockouts: Empty shelves during peak demand weeks.
- Rotation errors: Seasonal goods expiring before they’re sold.
AI and National Field Teams: The Holiday Advantage
The 2025 holiday season will be the first where AI-powered merchandising tools are mainstream in Canadian CPG strategy.
According to McKinsey (2025):
- AI-enabled shelf monitoring reduces out-of-stocks by up to 30%.
- Predictive analytics improves forecasting accuracy by 22%.
- Dynamic pricing tools protect against consumer frustration caused by inflation.
Pair these insights with a national field merchandising team and brands gain a real edge: compliance validated, stock rotated, and execution gaps closed before sales are lost.
Categories to Watch in Holiday 2025
While every shelf matters, several categories face especially high stakes:
- Beverages (sparkling water, wine alternatives, energy drinks): Strong holiday spikes, but vulnerable to misplacement.
- Frozen foods: Holiday gatherings mean increased reliance on ready-made items, requiring strict rotation.
- Baking staples: With baking goods up 5.8% YoY (StatsCan, 2025), shoppers are price-sensitive and brand-switching quickly if items are unavailable.
Strategy Playbook for CPG Leaders
To protect sales and consumer trust this holiday season, executives should:
- Audit Shelves Frequently: Don’t assume displays stay compliant, validate daily.
- Rotate Aggressively: Seasonal perishables need strict rotation discipline.
- Leverage AI: Predict and prevent execution gaps in real time.
- Balance Online and In-Store: Ensure ecommerce and in-store assortments align.
The Canadian holiday season of 2025 is poised for growth, but only for those who can execute at scale. Shelf discipline, rotation, and AI-backed merchandising will separate winners from losers.
Ecommerce may be rising, but the in-store shelf remains the frontline of competition.
👉 Don’t let poor execution turn peak season into a missed opportunity.
Visit www.marketsupport.ca for more information.
« Back to Blog